Sunday, April 5, 2009

Apr 03FridayQuotes


Benjamin Graham uses Mr Market as an anecdote to explain market movements. It is very effective and simple to understand to a layman and here is how Warren Buffett put it:
“Ben Graham, my friend and teacher, long ago described the mental attitude toward market fluctuations that I believe to be most conducive to investment success. He said that you should imagine market quotations as coming from a remarkably accommodating fellow named Mr Market who is your partner in a private business. Without fail, Mr Market appears daily and names a price at which he will either buy your interest or sell you his.
Even though the business that the two of you own may Even though the business that the two of you own may have economic characteristics that are stable, Mr Market’s quotations will be anything but. For, sad to say, the poor fellow has incurable emotional problems. At times he falls euphoric and can see only the favourable factors affecting the business. When in that mood, he names a very high buy-sell price because he fears that you will snap up his interest and rob him of imminent gains. At other times he is depressed and can see nothing but trouble ahead for both the business and the world. On these occasions he will name a very low price, since he is terrified that you will unload your interest to him.
Mr Market has another endearing characteristic: He doesn’t mind being ignored. If his quotation is uninteresting to you today, he will be back with a new one tomorrow. Transactions are strictly at your option. Under these conditions, the more manic-depressive his behaviour, the better it is for you.
But, like Cinderella at the ball, you must heed one warning or everything will turn into pumpkins and mice: Mr Market is there to serve you, not to guide you. It is his pocketbook not his wisdom, that you will find useful. If he shows up someday in a particularly foolish mood, you are free to either ignore him or to take advantage of him, but it will be disastrous if you fall under his influence. Indeed, if you aren’t certain that you understand and can value your business far better than Mr Market you don’t belong in the game. As they say in poker, “if you’ve been in the game 30 minutes and you don’t know who the patsy is, you’re the patsy.”
The real lesson that Benjamin Graham wants to put across is in this statement: ”Mr Market is there to serve you, not to guide you”. The market does not tell you whether a stock is going up or down in the future. It is there to serve you by handling your transactions. Hence, do not make investment decisions based on market movement.
Ben Graham’s advice is sound for a long term investor. For a trader who does it short term, he/she is actually leveraging on market psychology for profits. Indicators become important clues to decipher the behaviour of Mr Market.

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